The institutions governing Pakistan are entangled with each other. None of the entangled leaders is ready to talk. The judiciary is taking sides. With the all-powerful military divided from top to bottom and unable to enforce its authority, the country, already in economic crisis, is on the brink of civil war.

Dark insinuations about a fifth martial law have been replaced by talk of a possible ‘revolution’ in the media and among intellectuals. They avoid the words “civil war” for fear of attracting the wrath of the authority that slapped the charges of treason. But doubts abound.

 

The crisis, persisting for over a year now, is showing no sign of ebbing since none of the contending parties is stepping back. Even those counselling talks are badly divided.

When politicians fought in the past, the army stepped in directly or otherwise to “guard national interests.” The judiciary endorsed it, and that made everyone fall in line. This time, however, the army is divided over Imran Khan who was voted out in the national assembly in April 2022.

This was after the then army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who had originally ‘engineered’ Khan’s ascendance in the 2018 elections, by his own admission post-retirement, decided to go ‘neutral’.

Nobody expected Khan to easily accept defeat, but none, including Bajwa and the ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), anticipated his growing popularity after losing power. For that matter, none expected Shehbaz Sharif, who had governed Punjab for five years and enjoyed the tacit support of all those who had grown tired of Khan’s governance to falter so badly.

This has boosted Khan. Besides the youth, the middle classes and the military who support him, even many of his critics admit that if his demand for an election is conceded, he could push his way back to power. Luck is on Khan’s side, even as Sharif makes desperate efforts to postpone elections. Besides being inept, his government is perceived as repressive.
After almost six months in office, the army chief, General Asim Munir, has given the impression of being weak. He was unable to iron out the differences in dealing with Khan among his corps commanders. At least two of the top principal staff officers who support Khan allowed organised attacks on military establishments. This has never happened to Pakistan’s military.

Both sides crossed the self-drawn “Red Line” on May 9 and cannot step back.
The army’s dilemma is that the judiciary has changed sides, altering the power balance. It has thwarted every army-backed move of the Sharif Government to contain Khan. Sharif’s actions have not only made it unpopular, but it has also badly exposed the army. The PDM leaders demonstrating to demand the Chief Justice of Pakistan’s resignation has made it worse.

The new line-up is Khan and the judiciary versus the army that wants a faltering Sharif to deliver. It is almost personal between Khan and Gen. Munir. Also, between Sharif and Chief Justice Omar Ata Bandial, whose line-up of top judges stands divided. The Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) which can sway crowds in the name of Islam joining Imran against the Sharif/army combine is a lethal combination.

Nobody owns the May 9 violence, fearing the military backlash. Senior PTI leaders like Fawad Chaudhry want to record their condemnation, perhaps for future use, should they come under direct military fire. Even President Arif Alvi, an Imran appointee to the highest post, has publicly condemned the ransacking of army establishments.

On condemning May 9 violence, Imran Khan has also fallen in line. He accuses Munir of personally trying to eliminate him even as he sends feelers for a compromise, and admits to doing it. Analysts say he wants Munir to either resign or contain Sharif by clearing the way for early elections.

Like Gen. Bajwa’s retirement last November, the Sharif Government awaits Chief Justice Bandial’s retirement in September. But neither the elections nor the resolution of the crisis itself can wait that long.

The army’s dilemma is the worst. As Raza Rumi writes in The Friday Times (May 16, 2023): “If the generals allow Imran to return to power, they will have to bow to a Pakistani Erdoğan. If they stop him, they risk exploding rifts within, creating a host of unmanageable crises.