All eyes are on Turkey after it went to the polls on Sunday to elect a new President and members of the Grand National Assembly (Parliament). With over 99 per cent of the votes counted so far, neither incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor his primary opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu has managed to breach the 50 per cent threshold required for an outright victory. The stage seems set for an unprecedented second round run-off which is expected to be a close fight that could go either way.

Located at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, Turkey figures prominently in the strategic calculus of a number of countries. Apart from being a NATO and G-20 member, Ankara’s geostrategic significance thanks to its proximity to several neighbouring hotspots makes it by default an important regional and global player.

The India-Turkey ties & its future

From India’s perspective, the election assumes significance in the context of changing the course of bilateral engagement that has failed to attain its full potential, historical, cultural and civilisational links notwithstanding. Some positive momentum witnessed in the last decade was rolled back at Ankara’s behest after August 5, 2019, when the special status accorded to Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution was withdrawn. Turkey’s reaction and statements on a matter internal to India did not go down well with New Delhi, plunging the relationship to an all-time low.

In a purely bilateral context, there are no major issues in India-Turkey ties, while external factors have ironically taken the relationship hostage. The Pakistan and Kashmir issues have continued to remain as major irritants. Unfortunately, Turkey looks at India through the prism of Pakistan. Its biased stance on Kashmir is based on the Pakistani narrative, echoing Islamabad’s anti-India rhetoric. Today Ankara is in a Catch-22 situation. It desires to economically engage with India and take the post-pandemic cooperation to the next level, while continuing its anti-India stance on Kashmir. India’s messaging has been clear – it cannot be “business as usual” unless Ankara embarks on a serious course correction.

Recent months have seen some positive developments with bilateral exchanges, including a meeting at the leadership level. While an overnight qualitative transformation in the relationship may not happen, post-election Turkey is likely to carry forward this momentum. The presidential visit from Turkey in the G-20 context could also help focus on getting the bilateral ties back on track.

From conventional to confrontational approach

In the last couple of decades, particularly since the failed coup attempt of 2016, Turkey has chosen to embark on a path that defies logic. Its aggressive posturing and confrontational approach, undermining alliances and even challenging its western allies marked a departure from its conventional, non-interventionist, classic foreign policy approach that was cautious and particularly avoided Middle Eastern entanglements. Strained relations with neighbours, siding with the Syrian opposition and close Muslim Brotherhood links has progressively alienated Turkey internationally. The change in approach under Erdogan has been a strategic miscalculation that has neither served its national interest nor helped resurrecting its global image.

With Input feed