From June 21 to June 23, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit the United States as part of a state visit. The Indian premier will speak to a joint session of the US Congress in addition to talking with President Joseph Biden and his staff. Significant planning has been done over the previous few months, particularly during the recent travels to India of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also visited New Delhi earlier this year for meetings of the Quad Ministerial and G20 Foreign Ministers. The Secretary also met with Dr. S. Jaishankar, the minister of external affairs.

There is hope that the visit would have noteworthy results. Kurt Campbell, the US National Security Council’s Indo-Pacific coordinator, for instance, said: “My hope is that this visit consecrates the India-US relationship as the most important bilateral relationship for the US on the global stage and that we effectively make it into escape velocity.”

The relationship between India and the US has greatly improved over the past 20 years and is moving in the right direction. The bilateral relationship did not fully develop over much of the Cold War, and the brief periods of cooperation did not result in a strategic partnership. Both nations have put in a lot of effort over the last 20 years to overcome historical setbacks and alter the trajectory of their bilateral relations.

It is important to acknowledge that the US is a superpower with the world’s largest economy and military capabilities unmatched by any other country. The US has a dominant presence in global institutions and can define the contours of global conversations on international politics and the economy. For a country with such power resources, modifying its policy with India was relatively easy.

On the other hand, India did not command similar power resources and had to overcome the memory of hostility during the Cold War. In 1971, the US moved its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier into the Bay of Bengal, threatening India during the conflict with Pakistan. After the 1998 nuclear tests, the US imposed sanctions on India. From Delhi’s perspective, the US policies in its neighbourhood were not always helpful. The US had a long history of supporting Pakistan even after the end of the Cold War. The hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan enabled organisations with regressive ideological frameworks to take control of the country. Despite these experiences, the Indian leadership has demonstrated considerable commitment to upgrading the bilateral relationship with the US.

In some quarters, in the US, there are apprehensions about the reliability of India as an alliance partner. An alliance means that if one partner is attacked, it will also be treated as an attack on the other partner. However, the challenge lies in the fact that Washington is yet to acknowledge Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir as integral parts of India, as defined by Delhi. Without a mutually accepted understanding of the territorial extent of each other’s territories, there can be no alliance. Moreover, as India’s External Affairs Minister noted, deploying Western treaty templates on India may not be useful either.

Further, there is also scepticism among some in the US about whether there can be value congruence between Indian and US foreign policies. Often, such assessments stem from a genuine concern to protect the bilateral relationship from exaggerated expectations and consequent disappointments. Nonetheless, the fact that Indian foreign policy is sometimes subjected to harsh evaluation also points to the ability of the US to marshal its academic and intellectual infrastructure to load the conversations in its favour. Creating discourses to ensure that a partner concedes more during the negotiations is a well-established tactic in international politics. In addition, the United States is a democratic country where diverse opinions shape its public discourse.

India’s engagement with the US is premised on the belief that democracies create spaces for genuine conversations, which can be leveraged to enhance cooperation and address the irritants in the bilateral relationship. Over the years, India has made persistent efforts to nudge the US to understand the complexity of its domestic politics, its difficult regional context and its need to have diverse partners on the global landscape.

The US and Indian economies operate on liberal market principles, although with differing levels of emphasis. Such adherence to liberal market principles provided opportunities for increased economic engagement between the two countries. In 2022-23, with a total trade of USD 128.78 billion in goods, the US is the largest trade partner of India. Interestingly, Indian companies invested about USD 40 billion in the US. On the other hand, between 2000-March 2023, the US is the third largest investor in India, with foreign direct investments of about USD 60.19 billion. With initiatives such as Make in India and Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, India may attract more investment from US companies in various critical technologies, including chip manufacturing. Building on the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for establishing a Semiconductor Sub-Committee under the rubric of commercial dialogue between the two countries, India will be eager for increased partnership in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.

In May 2022, the US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) was launched to strengthen defence-industrial cooperation. During the upcoming Indian prime minister’s visit, it is likely that substantive progress will be made on the Roadmap for Defence Industry Cooperation. There are ongoing efforts to integrate the defence industrial ecosystems of both countries by ensuring increased supply chain engagement.

In terms of specific weapon systems, India’s Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has approved the acquisition of armed Predator Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) from the US. The two countries are expected to sign a formal agreement during the Indian prime minister’s visit. There is also anticipation that India and the US may sign an agreement on the transfer of technologies pertaining to General Electric’s GE-F414 INS6 fighter jet engine. From almost negligible defence imports, India’s defence purchases from the US will soon breach USD 25 billion. In addition, there have been significant interactions between Indian and the US defence forces through bilateral and multi-national exercises.

Through platforms like Quad, India and the US are attempting to shape the Indo-Pacific security and economic architecture. In addition to the wider Indo-Pacific, during the Indian premier’s visit, the need for a coordinated foreign policy approach in India’s immediate eastern neighbourhood may receive attention.

The Indian leadership may also discuss the measures to ensure not merely diversification of supply chains but also to build resilient supply chains. At a broader level, India will examine if the developed West is working to ensure a greater sync between geopolitical strategies and geoeconomic policies.

Given the global power shift, India, over the years, has been calling for the reform of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). India will appreciate an unambiguous statement from the US supporting India’s candidature for the permanent seat in the UNSC and the time-bound reform process of the United Nations.

The aggressive territorial assertions of China in many locations will be a topic of discussion as the Indian and US presidents talk about new geopolitical developments. But it would be incorrect to think that the changing India-US relationship is just a result of a concern for China’s rise. The relationship between India and the US is driven by increased economic engagement, interpersonal encounters, rising technical collaboration, the presence of a sizable Indian diaspora, and value congruence.

The value-interest dichotomy needs to be closely examined because values also determine how interests are identified and pursued. It will be necessary to get past these conceptual contradictions in order to understand the India-US relationship adequately.