The White House says that the State visit, the highest level of diplomatic reception, will boost the US and India’s shared commitment to a free, open, prosperous and secure Indo-Pacific and “our shared resolve to elevate our strategic technology partnership”, including in defence, clean energy, and space.

On the invitation of President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will embark on his first State visit to the United States on June 22.

The US and India’s shared commitment to a free, open, prosperous, and secure Indo-Pacific will be strengthened by the State visit, the highest level of diplomatic reception, according to the White House. It will also strengthen “our shared resolve to elevate our strategic technology partnership,” including in defence, clean energy, and space.

Additionally, Modi will give his second such speech to the US Congress after doing so in 2016. Before him, Manmohan Singh, Atal Behari Vajpayee, P V Narasimha Rao, Rajiv Gandhi, and Jawaharlal Nehru spoke to joint sessions of the Congress.

The G20 Summit will be held in India in September, so Modi’s trip to the US is extremely significant as it presents India with a rare opportunity to engage the US in constructive dialogue in order to make sure that the Summit in New Delhi is positive and produces some tangible results that address the many challenges that the entire world is currently facing and where the G20 needs to act and be seen to act.

The visit has great significance for the US as well since it gives the US yet another chance to persuade India to decisively side with the US and its NATO allies in the long-running standoff with Russia in Ukraine.

 

Take a long view

Modi and Biden’s short-term objectives are crucial. However, given the bilateral relationship between the two countries is now ready for it, it will be wise for both Modi and Biden to go beyond the short-term objectives and take this opportunity to lift the relationship to a higher gear.

There are other topics besides the G20 Summit and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The new urgency in the US-India relationship denotes the impending shift to a new paradigm brought on by modifications to the internal structural equation and external factors affecting the global environment. Because of the significant and wide-ranging changes in the transatlantic relationship, this visit by Modi will be noteworthy from a diplomatic standpoint.

The visit also gives the two nations a chance to acknowledge that without Russia, a peaceful world today is not feasible. Therefore, Biden and Modi will have to work together to develop a consultation system for addressing the modern world’s new challenges.

By inviting Modi for state visit, Biden administration is playing a long game. Despite some existing challenges in bilateral ties, the Biden administration realises that the strategic importance of this relationship is India’s deepening commercial and defence ties with the US. The Biden administration thus will try to take the relationship, which has done relatively well across different administrations in both governments, forward and look for ways to bring it to a new level, both in terms of commercial relations and security relations.

In the last 16 months since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while Western democracies have vehemently condemned Moscow, the strategic silence maintained by India, as world’s biggest democracy, has confused many and has not been well understood by the US.

India’s concerns in this issue and its global ramifications, which have layers within layers, are very distinct from the West. Apart from four main factors shaping India’s policy toward Ukraine and Russia, namely history, energy, arms and influence, the most important concern for India is the way relations between China and Russia have evolved over the past year as Russian President Vladimir Putin has become extremely close to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

What is a major concern for India should also worry the West a lot and the western nations, especially the US, also need to recognise India’s military, location, public attitudes, development objectives, and threat perceptions are not like other US partners. That is why, America needs to carefully tailor its actions and expectations to build a meaningful strategic relationship with India.

The 21st Century Partnership

The US is aware of the strategic, economic, and diplomatic significance of India, which has over 1.4 billion people, is the world’s most populous country, and has the largest economy with the highest pace of growth.

 It also recognises India’s potential as a promising option in supply chains, innovation centres, and joint ventures as tensions between the US and China escalate in the commercial sphere as well. Already, the bilateral commerce between the US and India is expected to surpass its previous high of USD 157 billion. As a result, it is currently the most significant possible geoeconomic partner for the United States, with greater emphasis on resilience and national security.

Biden plans to exert pressure on India to decrease import tariffs even further, eliminate restrictions on foreign retail, relax too onerous data privacy laws, and offer financial incentives for foreign investment in order to safeguard US commercial interests and increase the size of the US market in India. Modi will calmly listen to everything, but considering that India will be in election mode in the coming months, it is unlikely that he will make any difficult reforms or give in to any demands in the near future.

In an effort to persuade India to join these groupings and firmly align itself with the US, Biden will almost certainly also bring up UN reforms, G7, NATO, and QUAD membership expansion. Additionally, he can bring up Putin’s attendance in the Delhi Summit while subtly asking India to prevent it.

The US actively assisting India in expanding its defence manufacturing capability is anticipated to be one of the biggest developments during the visit.

The US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J Austin travelled to India this month on June 4-5, to reinforce the major defence partnership, and advance cooperation in critical domains ahead of Modi’s visit. India and the United States have concluded a roadmap for defence industry cooperation for the next few years, to bolster New Delhi’s defence manufacturing ambitions. Austin has committed to strengthen operational collaboration across all military services, with an eye to supporting India’s leading role as a security provider in the Indo-Pacific.

The Modi Game

Modi is aware that American foreign policy is not determined by what one likes or dislikes, but rather by what is best for America. He is also aware that, should he lose the election in 2024, the American government will move quickly to support the new prime minister of India.

It is unlikely that Biden will bring up the Kashmir issue with Modi; instead, Modi will use his speech to the joint meeting of the House of Representatives and Senators to explain how he was able to put an end to terrorism and militancy in the area by repealing Article 370, as well as how he has brought peace and prosperity to Kashmir. He can also bring up the productive G20 Tourism Summit that took place in the valley in May.

He will speak about terrorism propagated by Pakistan, and he might seek support from Congress and Senate for punishing Pakistan. He may also raise the issue of the status of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK), and the disputed areas of Gilgit and Baluchistan. So, stakes are high for Modi too and he will not shy away from taking a dig at those who criticise India for human rights violations.

India has the potential to achieve energy independence by 2047 with significant economic and environmental benefits. It has achieved the world’s lowest renewable energy prices and has found some of the world’s largest lithium reserves. This can propel India towards cost-effective energy independence in a way that is economically and environmentally advantageous. India’s energy infrastructure requires USD 3 trillion of investment in the coming decades, and US could be a major stakeholder in this.

Besides bilateral ties, both leaders also have domestic agenda on their minds. As the General Election in India is just a year away, Modi will certainly try to capitalise on the visit and would like to come back with unprecedented agreements and investments in commercial and defence domains.

In a similar vein, Biden will be eager to win over the nearly 5 million-strong Indian diaspora, which is also the wealthiest ethnic group in the nation, as he gears up for a re-run in the 2024 Presidential elections. Biden will also try to counter his potential rival, former President Donald Trump, by touting some significant economic and strategic victories during Modi’s visit.

Putting aside their personal goals, the two leaders should consider the longer-term effects of the visit, which is more likely to be a “gear changer” than a “game changer” in India-US relations. The relationship should now advance as quickly as possible, with increased trust and improved cooperation.

India has a rare opportunity to increase its influence in the Indo-Pacific to secure a stable regional order at a time when China has alienated most of its neighbours with its hostile language and actions and US-China ties are at a standstill.

Therefore, it is in Washington’s best interest to aggressively engage Modi and reassure him that if the present is managed effectively, the future of US-India relations can seem promising. The finest person to change the course of bilateral relations between the US and India is PM Modi, and he will be doing just that during his historic state visit to the US.

(WITH INPUT SOURCE)