Hung assembly has been the most common norm in assembly elections of Karnataka as most of the results depicted. However, trends show a different fate for the state this time with Congress grabbing the majority of seats. If these trends continue to follow, no kingmaker would be required to make the government, and INC will get to go to the governor with a clear mandate.
BJP utilized all of its top leaders to campaign and even used ‘Bajrangbali’ to maintain a ground for their support. The Hinduism that seemed to work miraculously for this party most of the time couldn’t fetch much for the ‘deluxe’ leaders who campaigned tirelessly all these months. Here are the reasons as per our analysis that has brought to Congress the mark of victory:
Anti-incumbency: While this is a very common factor for the states like Karnataka and Rajasthan, the former has chosen to follow the trend again. This is the prime reason as per BJP leaders too.
Losing ground in rural Karnataka: BJP has certainly scored well in urban areas and cities like Bengaluru, where they’ve lost the bet are rural areas of the state that this time have turned out to be decision-makers of this assembly elections.
Lingayat community: The ruling party was supposedly batting in confidence as they believed that they own the maximum number of votes in this community but the ‘Math’ of Lingayat was seemingly unhappy with the cuts imposed by the government and that’s what shows up in the results.
Mallikarjun Kharge: With Kharge, the confidante of Sonia Gandhi, getting the chair of the Indian National Congress, the party got a stronghold in the state as it influenced the commoners to believe that the centre still recognizes the southern state and they’re important to the oldest party of the nation. It did work as an emotional emphasis in the favour of Congress.
JDS being cannibalized by Congress: The INC has fetched 43% of votes this time which is unbelievably high if we go down memory lane. BJP has also contributed to this share but what has changed this figure is the surging of Congress that has penetrated into the bastion of JDS. The same JDS that played kingmaker in the 2018 assembly elections.
Anti-hijab row: Anti-hijab row remained one of the burning and most discussed subjects last year. Schools and colleges remained shut and protests followed and everything was stalled for months until the apex court intervened.
BJP failing to pick it well: When you’re in the government, you have to showcase what good job you did in the last session, namely the projects and schemes and proposals that worked for people. However, BJP chose to play on Hindutva yet again, probably because they missed it on the ground. Modi himself tried every armament ranging from sovereignty to Bajrangbali to woo the voters but perhaps it was quite late.
No strong face for BJP: Yes, BJP has won many assembly elections in a number of states with just one face i.e. Modi but it is noteworthy that all those states didn’t have strong faces in opposition as well. However, in Karnataka, with DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah, Congress has two big leaders in its kit. In BJP, BS Yediyurappa was sidelined soon after the party managed to get the throne and SR Bommai never had a strong and confident persona to bet upon. Injecting Yediyurappa into the mainstream just ahead of the elections didn’t help much.
