Modi's party still seems a huge unsolved riddle for the opposition in 2023 as well as in 2024
When the new year invites new hopes along with grand enthusiasm, new challenges also accompany with its arrival. But this year’s new year is a bit different. There seems to be a lot of hope shining in the advent of the coming year, and there is also a massive noise of challenges. Especially for the politics of the country, this year’s meaning is no less than a grave battle.
Elections are due in nine states over the next 12 months – starting with Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland which will vote in February. Then Karnataka in May and Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Telangana and Rajasthan in November. Lok Sabha elections are to be held in the year 2024 and just a year before that, the electoral contest in so many states at an interval of a few months is being called the semi-final before the final. However, facts show that there is no merit in this. The states which ousted the BJP from power in the 2018 assembly elections, the very next year in 2019, the same states gave the BJP a bumper mandate in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Starting with Karnataka, the BJP barely came to power with 104 seats in the state with 224 assembly seats, but in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP swept the state, winning 25 out of 28 seats. In Rajasthan, BJP got only 73 seats out of 200, but in the Lok Sabha elections, BJP had defeated the Congress badly, which was running the government in the state. In the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, there was a tough fight between the BJP and the Congress and there was not even half a percent difference in the vote percentage of both the parties, but in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 28 out of 29 seats and made the ground slip under the feet of the Congress.
On the other hand, the Congress, which performed bad against the BJP in the Chhattisgarh assembly polls, was reduced to only one seat in the Lok Sabha polls. Even in states where assembly and Lok Sabha elections were held simultaneously, the mandate remained separate, as in Odisha. That’s why it clearly is apparent that the 2023 elections are undoubtedly final for the states, but calling them semi-finals for the center, will not be wise. Yes, it can definitely be said that from the results of these states, we can get some idea of the voter’s trend for the Lok Sabha polls.
The same applies to the results of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, where the BJP and the Congress are tied 1-1 in terms of victory. However, it is also true that Congress has wrested Himachal from BJP, where instead of laying down arms before the battle like in Gujarat, it was seen standing in the field firm till the last moment. Secondly, it has been seen that the people of the country definitely reward those who work hard with the desire for victory, and in this field the BJP ruled by Modi-Shah has no match. Remember the date of 5th December.
Voting was underway for the last phase of the Gujarat Assembly elections. Where was Prime Minister Narendra Modi that time? Top BJP leaders and state functionaries were flying from Ahmedabad to Delhi for a two-day meeting. What was the agenda of the meeting – Preparation for state polls in 2023. After a month-long election campaign, 39 rallies, accessing directly to 134 assemblies and a 50 km long road-show on the last day of campaigning, instead of spending time in rest, the top leaders of the party got involved in chalking out the strategy for the next examination. Why won’t the power of such preparation be visible?
When did BJP start preparations for Gujarat? In early 2022, right from the next day after the results of the assembly elections of five states including Uttar Pradesh. So they can accuse BJP of misuse of machinery, favoritism of Election Commission, pressure of ED-CBI, tampering of EVMs, but the fact can’t be denied that BJP takes elections more seriously than any other party. Thirdly, BJP will leave no stone unturned to win the elections of 9 states which are going to be held this year in 2023.
What will be the biggest strength of BJP in these polls? Prime Minister Modi of course! A major aspect of the eight years of Modi rule has also been the political empowerment of the BJP. Modi has not only made BJP win the elections, but has also worked towards expansion of the party and gave it sky-high credibility. This is also a kind of revolutionary change in Indian politics, which on one hand witnesses the increasing dominance of BJP and on the other hand due to this the defeat of Congress is visible.
Starting its journey from only 6 states in May 2014, under the leadership of the Prime Minister, BJP has expanded to 16 states by 2022. It is also an interesting coincidence that the Congress, which once ruled the entire country, has now reached the position of the BJP in 2014 – it is part of the government in six states, while on its own its power has been limited to only three states. The achievements of BJP under the leadership of Modi are worth admiration.
Since 2014, the BJP has managed to retain power not once, but twice in a row in the politically crucial Uttar Pradesh. In the last 8 years, BJP has won almost the entire Northeast where it had no significant presence before 2014. Being at the helm of power in 16 states, the BJP is directly ruling 49.3 per cent of the country’s population. This figure is of about 70 crore people i.e. half of India. Modi appeals to such a large population with different aspects of his personality. For the poor, he is a champion of their rights and for the middle class, a development-oriented visionary leader. For the youth there is such a politician who is realizing the dream of making India a world power, then for the women there is such a head of the family who not only solves their problems but also worries about their self-esteem.
The Modi government’s welfare schemes involving housing, toilets, Ujjwala, ration, farmer welfare, direct bank transfers, a powerful organizational machinery and abundant resources have made the BJP virtually invincible in current electoral politics with few exceptions. This trend can continue in 2023 as well and in 2024 it is likely to get stronger. The country’s achievements on the economic front are also preparing the ground for this idea to fructify. Today India is the fastest growing economy in the world and is on track to become the third largest economy by the end of this decade. In the midst of global inflation, the promising results of the policies of the Modi government to provide relief to the public are also coming to the fore.
Therefore, the fourth point shows that there is still enough scope for BJP’s acceptability among voters to increase further due to the popular ideology of nationalism as well as the Prime Minister’s coming true promises of economic development and the charismatic image of the Prime Minister himself.
But it is not that everything is one-sided. There are a few issues that could trouble Modi and the BJP. Despite all the efforts, the highest level of unemployment still remains a challenge for the central government. There is still no complete relief from inflation. Farmers are once again uniting with their unfulfilled demands. In 2023, the possibility of a big social movement like the farmer’s movement is seen appearing. No matter how indifference the BJP may show regarding Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, it has to be accepted that this Yatra has breathed new life into the lifeless Congress. To what extent the Congress and the opposition are able to manipulate the environment created by it in their favor, this will be evident this year only.
Similar to BJP, the state polls are also important for the Congress. In the states where elections will be held this year, except Telangana, Congress is in a direct fight with BJP in all the other states. Obviously, the victory in this contest will instill confidence in the party workers and it may also come in the role of leadership in the opposition. The election of a non-Gandhi on the post of president also seems to be beneficial for the Congress. Barring leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal and KCR, Sharad Pawar, Nitish Kumar and almost the entire leadership of the southern states seem to be rallying in favor of the Congress from now on.
In this context, the events of 2023 in opposition politics will play an vital role in deciding the course of 2024. On the other hand, the fifth and the most important thing is that usually in the biggest examination of a democracy every five years, the BJP still appears strong, but the ground at the same also displays the possibility of a tough fight.
