The people of Karnataka have pronounced their verdict. Keeping its tradition of changing governments every five years, voters have given a clear manThe people the Congress. The clear majority to the Congress Party also means there is little chance of political uncertainty as witnessed by the state in the previous Assembly.
Previous elections had seen Congress trailing the BJP by 24 seats despite securing 2.5 per cent more votes. The horse-trading that ensued saw several Janata Dal (SeculaLAs defecting and BJP’s backdoor entry to power.
The Congress leads BJP by nearly 8 per cent this time around. The saffron party could not lead in any region except for the coastal parts or Karaval. Significantly, it failed to save even its traditional bastions of Maharashtra- Karnataka region and Bengaluru metropolitan. Furthermore, the Congress has also managed to trump JD(S) in its stronghold of Old Mysore. To summarise the poll outcome, the Congress has emerged as the only party to have retained its mass base in all of the state’s six major electoral regions.
Not even 19 rallies and six road shows by PM Narendra Modi could bring the BJP home. Twelve ministers of the outgoing Bommai government failed to save their constituencies. Analysts have termed it as BJP’s worst defeat and the Congress Party’s most emphatic victory since 2014. A bolstered Congress Party is linking this performance to Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra. It will now look to build a narrative against PM Modi in run-up to the 2024 General Elections.
The Congress now finds itself in a comfortable position in the state where it neither needs JD(S) as an ally nor does it need to fear “Operation Lotus.” Only a self-destructive course of action can dislodge the party from this sweet spot. It needs to ensure a swift selection of the Chief Minister to evade any such risk. The coordination seen between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar during the campaign- two top claimants to the top post is a positive sign for the party.
Scales seem tipped in Siddaramaiah’s favour even as choosing Shivakumar could enhance party’s chances among the influential Vokkaliga community ahead of Lok Sabha polls. However, he is out on bail on corruption charges and the party may find it hard to explain him at the helm of the government since it had raised the alleged corruption of the Bommai government in a big way during the campaign.
The grand old party has played its cards right so far in Karnataka’s political game, including tje promise to ban the Bajrang Dal which many had seen as a self-inflicting move. It was probably for the first time in Modi- Shah era that we saw the Congress Party setting the agenda for any electoral battle. It is often the other way around. However, the Congress could successfully play in the polarisation plank by raising the Bajrang Dal bogey and BJP took the bait quite uncharacteristically. This ensured that the Muslim vote was no longer divided between the Congress and the JD(S) helping the former win many close contests including in the Hyderabad-Karnataka region. Even more importantly, the party also managed to win back some of its lost support base among Lingayats from the BJP notwithstanding the defeat of Jagdish Shettar, the former BJP stalwart who had switched sides just before the polls.
It would be a mistake to consider such a big win as a fluke. If Bommai government faltered on many fronts, the Congress Party also did many things right. It was seen as a resurgent force on the electoral ground after a long time.
The Siddaramaiah-Shivakumsr duo in the state was complemented well by Kharge and the Gandhi family at the centre. In contrast, BJP could never get over its internal squabbles. The results also indicate the caste census plank coupled with the five guarantees aimed at wooing the marginalized sections have worked well for Congress.
Before the counting for the EVM started in Karnataka, Congress supporters had already started celebrating from Delhi to Bangalore, which indicates the increasing confidence of the Congress party. Now after this victory, Congress will have Chief Ministers in four states. They are also a part of the governing coalition in three other states. But what next? Surely, this victory will boost the morale of Congress workers. This will also increase the status of Congress in the opposition coalition. Obviously, Congress would like to present this outcome as an indication of things to come in 2024. However, this comparison could be misleading. Besides, the fight of 2023 is not yet over. This year there will be elections in three Hindi belt states – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, not to mention southern Telangana. Two of these states have Congress governments, while in Madhya Pradesh, Congress could not save the government it formed. So the challenge is much greater for the Congress. Moreover, when it comes to the Hindi belt, the BJP seems to be in a relatively stronger position. After the victory in Karnataka, Congress now has the opportunity to change that perception.
From the BJP’s perspective, there are several important lessons to be learned from this defeat. In election after election, the BJP has become increasingly reliant on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to secure victories. When local issues are at stake in an election, even Modi’s hard work may not be enough to help the BJP. The recent election in Karnataka is a fresh example of this.
