Does India have to rise from slumber now?
Every natural disaster leaves behind a message. The recent earthquake in Turkiye and Syria is no exception. The magnitude of human suffering depicted in each image from the disaster zone is a reminder of the dangers of interfering with nature. So far, more than 25,000 casualties have been reported, with 18,000 of them being Turkish citizens, and the death toll is still rising. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the number of people affected by the earthquake could reach two crores.
Turkiye has experienced numerous powerful earthquakes in the past, including the 1939 earthquake in Erzincan in Eastern Turkiye, which measured 8.0 on the Richter scale and resulted in the deaths of over 25,000 people. The current disaster, however, is likely to surpass the tragedy in Erzincan in terms of destruction. This also suggests that the country has learned little from its history.
India can also gain important insights from this earthquake. Many regions in our country are located in highly sensitive seismic zones, including Kashmir, Western Himachal Pradesh, Eastern Uttarakhand, a majority of the northeastern states, and the Kutch area in Gujarat, which fall under Seismic Zone 5. This indicates that these areas are at the highest risk of experiencing a high-intensity earthquake. Scientists have been warning of the potential for a strong earthquake in the Himalayan region since November of last year. No one can predict when nature will strike, so the time to prepare is now.
Most parts of Jammu and Kashmir are vulnerable to strong earthquakes. Residents of Thathri village in the Doda district of Jammu live in constant fear due to the wide cracks that have developed in many of their houses. Initially, water seepage was believed to be the cause of the cracks, but a team of scientists later confirmed it to be of geological origin. The hilly region of Doda is one of the most sensitive environmental zones in Jammu and Kashmir and experienced nine seismic shocks in 60 hours last August.
A recent crisis in Joshimath in Uttarakhand is still fresh in memory. Over 1,000 families in this religious town were displaced as dangerous cracks made their dwellings uninhabitable. These families are still awaiting a permanent solution to their problem.
Could Doda and Joshimath be a warning of an impending catastrophe? Many parts of Uttarakhand are at risk, according to several studies. The hilly state has been lucky to have been spared a major earthquake for two centuries, but this also means that there has been a constant accumulation of geological energy beneath the ground that could erupt at any time. Estimates suggest that such an event could ravage an area within 300 kilometers of the state’s diameter, including Delhi-NCR.
Are we prepared to face such a possibility? As the old wisdom says, “It’s not the tremors that kill people, but the buildings.” In Turkiye, old and sub-standard buildings have led to a high toll of the earthquake.
Horrifying videos of earthquakes have shown large concrete structures falling like a pack of cards, taking many lives with them in an instant.
Experts have consistently warned of the dangers of allowing construction activities involving sub-standard materials. We need to identify towns and villages that are at risk and provide alternative arrangements for their residents to be relocated to safer places. Construction should only be carried out on the level ground or mountains with gentle slopes that are safer for buildings. Those affected in Thathri and Joshimath have already been relocated to similar places.
We need a plan for developing safe infrastructure in earthquake-prone areas. Buildings should be designed so that their roofs can withstand strong tremors, as most casualties from earthquakes result from collapsing roofs. In addition, construction activities should not obstruct natural water bodies, as this could lead to deadly flash floods. Heavy machinery should also be avoided for infrastructure projects in the Himalayas, as the delicate ecology of these young mountains requires a cautious approach to blasting activities. Road connectivity is essential for these regions, but it comes at the cost of inviting nature’s wrath. It is encouraging to see that many new buildings in hilly areas are being built to earthquake-resistant standards. Sirens have been installed in some parts of Garhwal and Kumaun to warn people in the event of an earthquake.
It remains to be seen whether similar measures will be taken in other geologically sensitive areas. There is an urgent need to implement such measures in metropolitan cities like Delhi and Mumbai. The government issued a National Building Code (NBC) in 2016 to ensure safe buildings, but there is no law to enforce it.
According to a study, about 90% of Delhi’s buildings may not withstand a strong earthquake. The Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) prepared the draft Safe Audit Policy in 2019 to make the National Capital’s concrete structures earthquake-resistant, but it has not been put into effect because the cost of the audit was placed on the public. While building safe structures does cost money, it cannot be more expensive than losing lives. We need to raise public awareness in this direction. Although we cannot prevent earthquakes, we can certainly minimize their damage.
