MQ-9B SeaGuardian
In NEW DELHI: The multibillion-dollar defence agreements between New Delhi and Washington, with the ultimate goal of bolstering the nation’s military capabilities along the northern and western frontiers, were one of the centrepieces of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the US.
After relying on Russian weapons for many years, India’s strengthening military ties with the US were also highlighted by the large-scale defence purchases. In an effort to wean India off Russian weapons, the US has been making enticing military deals over the past few years.
Analysts and security officials, though, told Reuters that India’s defence agreements with the US were more about growing its own domestic arms sector than they were about reducing its reliance on Russian defence technology and moving towards the West.
Self-reliance push
India is the world’s biggest arms importer and Russia accounts for nearly half of the country’s defence imports.
However, in the last few years, the Narendra Modi government has been working on a roadmap to boost the production of homegrown weapons and limit India’s dependence on foreign arms.
Most of India’s recent major weapons purchases now include provisions for joint manufacture or technology transfer, irrespective of which country it is dealing with.
Take US for instance. During PM Modi’s visit, US-based General Electric signed an MoU with India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to produce fighter jet engines for the Indian Air Force (IAF).
A possible $3 billion deal for MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones is also being discussed between the two countries.
But in line with New Delhi’s desire for self-reliance in defence and Modi’s flagship “Make in India” policy, the jet engine deal includes joint manufacturing in the future, while the assembly and maintenance of the SeaGuardians will also likely be in India.
“It is a reality, that we have to reduce dependence on Russia,” a senior Indian defence officer told Reuters. “But that is part two. The part one is the effort to get out of the import business,” he added.
India has now been promoting the production of indigenous weapons under the Modi government’s “Aatmanirbhar (Self-reliant) push”.
As part of that, the Centre has already imposed a virtual ban on imports of several weapons and is buying only highly essential equipment from external sources.
‘Nobody gives you everything’
Despite India’s effort to cut imports and boost indigenous production, it’s a long road ahead when it comes to accessing critical technology.
Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, said Washington had earlier paid “lip service” but was now easing India’s access to military technologies.
He said US was “leaning in with technology” sharing more with India than it had with some its closest allies.
However, the moves so far will not be sufficient to end New Delhi’s reliance on Russia while stringent US rules governing the sharing of military technology limit future possibilities for now.
“Nobody gives you everything. They keep you at least a screwdriver away from having it fully,” a second senior official from defence ministry told Reuters.
Arzan Tarapore, an Indian security expert at Stanford University, said the deals announced during Modi’s visit “do not in themselves represent an Indian shift away from Russia.”
“A big shift away from Russia will take multiple decades,” he said.
Eye on China, shift from Russia
Even as it tries to boost production and even export of homegrown weapons, India continues to rely on Russia and US for defence systems in its bid to counter neighbours like China.
Tarapore said that the biggest potential for US-India collaboration should be on new systems that India doesn’t already have.
India’s main aim is to narrow the technological gap with better-armed China, with which it has a tense relationship, and which is also closely allied with traditional foe Pakistan.
One problem for India is that Russia’s war in Ukraine has severely dented Moscow’s ability to deliver weapons and equipment.
India’s Air Force recently informed a parliamentary panel that Russia would delay deliveries of spares for Sukhoi Su-30 MKI and MiG-29 jet fighter planes. A big-ticket item, believed to be the remaining two of the five Russian S-400 air defence systems India bought for nearly $5.5 billion in 2018, has also been delayed, it said.
India has also been expecting to receive two nuclear-powered attack submarines from Russia over the next few years, but these might also be delayed, defence officials said.
Such problems have reinforced India’s resolve to become less dependent on Russia, but it does not want to rely on any one nation for its weapons purchases, they said.
It is buying French fighter jets, Israeli drones, American jet engines and potentially German submarines. Over time these purchases will reduce the share of Russian military technology used by India, but this would take at least two decades, Indian officials said.
A balancing act
India is unlikely to rely solely on the US or Russia for its weapon needs, in keeping with its impartial stance on the conflict in the Ukraine.
The days of US and Russian dominance of the global defence market and their ability to dominate defence technology were coming to an end, according to Bill Greenwalt, a former top Pentagon official for industrial policy, but what would replace them was “still a work in progress.”
He warned that India would get upset with the stringent US export controls on arms and the limitations they impose on knowledge transfer and the creation of new systems using acquired technology.
“I expect India will pursue cooperation with the West with those countries that can transfer technology … with the least amount of limitations on their use,” he said.
According to Derek Grossman, a defence analyst at the Rand Corporation, even if India can distance itself from Moscow over the coming decades, the US will continue to harbour concerns about how its systems are being utilised and whether doing so may somehow benefit Russia.
This is because India and Russia have historically had tight defence relations.
“India is going to be opportunistic in this situation and accept whatever the US is willing to offer. But I don’t think they are willing to give up what they have with Russia,” he said.
(This story has not been edited by Bharat Express staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
